laureelee,
The start of this comes from here:
I started off using that to give myself an idea of how many calories to consume and what kind of expectations for weight loss I should have. After a while I decided I wanted something a little more customizable to my actual observed weigh-ins, and so I took that model and determined the shape of the curve of that model.
From there, I used that exponential curve and fit it into my own data so that the curve tended to be shaped the same way, but would be either steeper or shallower depending on my weigh ins. Every time a new weigh in comes in, the curve shifts slightly to reflect the new number. Obviously as more time goes on and I lose more weight, the curve has me lose fewer and fewer pounds per week.
All of this gives me a general weight loss trend and a decent idea of how much weight I will lose in the future at the current pace. Today is day 264 of my experiment. Feeding 264 into the formula gives a result of '274.7'. June 16 is day 350. Feeding '350' into the formula gives a result of '249.7'. March 22, 2014 (a year from today) would be day 629, and feeding '629' into the formula gives a result of '186.4'.
Here is the chart. The red lines are my actual day to day weight totals, the blue line is the model curve:
View attachment 20271
And yes, this is the sort of thing I do for a living.
