From >450 to <160 lb by 2022

Extreme heat and wildfire smoke have all but curtailed my outdoor exercise, but hopefully we'll get some rain soon.
That's awful. I hope you're not too directly affected by the fires in terms of evacuations.
Looking at all your numbers and calculations i take it you're into math!
 
for me to try SPAM it would literally have to be the next to last food left on earth, ... Surströmming would still be the last.
Ha, I think Kopi luwak would be mine... I don't actually eat spam I just posted that in response to a fad diet spammer the moderators later took care of. But I do have a friend who loves fried spam.

Sorry to hear about the wildfire smoke. I hope you get to walk outdoors again soon...I know sometimes it takes a while to put them out. I used to live in an area close to wildfires, sometimes the smoke was just awful.

Interesting about switching to a carb heavy diet.
That's awful. I hope you're not too directly affected by the fires in terms of evacuations.
Looking at all your numbers and calculations i take it you're into math!

Thanks, I haven't had to evacuate this year - most of the immediate area burned two years ago. Wildfires just come with the territory, but it is worth it to me to live by forests, mountain, rivers, & lakes.

And I'm definitely a numbers guy. I know this approach would not work for most people, but having the objective data really helps me focus and stay on the wagon...
 
Wow, that's quite a story! And good to meet you, Err-2! :)
I'm really impressed with your number-crunching - there's a few of us who do that, and I admire it every time. Thanks for sharing it all with us - and I really look forward to reading the rest of it, down to 160.
 
Thanks, I haven't had to evacuate this year - most of the immediate area burned two years ago. Wildfires just come with the territory, but it is worth it to me to live by forests, mountain, rivers, & lakes.

And I'm definitely a numbers guy. I know this approach would not work for most people, but having the objective data really helps me focus and stay on the wagon...
Good to hear you don't have to evacuate at least. The smoke is enough to deal with...But yes so worth it to live in areas of forests!
I like objective data too and find it really helpful. I'm not as good with numbers but i was really strict on recording calorie in and out. I was fascinated with how well it worked when i actually stuck to it! keep up the great work!
 
Mid month nutrition adjustment:

I originally tried upping my calories to 1450 a few weeks ago but my weight stagnated for the next 8-12 days. When I scaled calories back down to 1350 last week my weight plummeted beyond even my original goal for the month. This weight stagnation & later loss were completely out of proportion to the ~1000 calories/week change, so I'm going to increase my calories again, this time a smaller bump to 1425 with a further increase probably necessary in October.

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Because I'm increasing calories I'm also able to change my Macros from:
45% protein, 35% carbs, & 20% fat
to
40% protein, 40% carbs, & 20% fat.

I'm still outside the "recommended" ranges of 10-35% Protein & 45-65% Carbs, but I really want to get at least 1g of Protein per my goal lean mass in pounds (160lb @ 15% is 136 lb lean mass, so 136g protein...). I'll still keep 25g fiber as my daily goal, which means now I'll have a little more room for some fun carbs...
 
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That's fascinating, about the results from upping calories, and then returning to base-line - reading about it feels like being in on a really interesting science trial - thanks for sharing!
 
I originally tried upping my calories to 1450 a few weeks ago but my weight stagnated for the next 8-12 days. When I scaled calories back down to 1350 last week my weight plummeted beyond even my original goal for the month.

What you are seeing with this is a demonstration of the effects of calorie cycling

Research suggests the benefits of calorie cycling include greater weight loss, improved ability to stick to a diet, less hunger and a reduction in the negative hormonal and metabolic adaptations of a normal weight loss diet.
 
Saturday progress report:
Time Period __ Avg Weight __ Avg BF% __ Avg Calories
2 weeks ago: ____ 295.0 _____ 43.1% ____ 1449
1 week ago: _____ 294.1 _____ 43.7% ____ 1465
This week: ______ 287.7 _____ 42.5% ____ 1439
(those are weekly averages)

My 2 week average weight loss is slightly over target (2.5% actual vs 2% goal) but my 2 week body fat loss is slightly lagging (0.6% actual vs 1% goal). As I posted last week, I had planned on doing a lot of work on my spreadsheet to adjust net calories based on macros, but I've had too much work/stress so that project is on the back burner for now.

Speaking of stress, I am trying to lower my overall cognitive/emotional load - a toll that doesn't do my weight (or blood pressure) any favors. I've never been fond of delegating, but I'm learning I can't do everything well (and, putting my ego aside, there are lots of things others do better than me). I also am working to stop procrastinating on the unpleasant tasks I'd rather ignore. As Herbert Stein remarked, "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop" so why let things snowball in the meantime?

Easier said than done...
 
Today I briefly carried a ~2 x 2 x 2 safe that weighs 175 lbs according to the spec sheet. Granted, I only moved it about 30 feet on each end of the move, but lifting it and walking 30 feet was just about all I could handle. Amazing that I used to carry about that much extra weight around all the time!
 
A good reminder! The weight is more spread out as fat of course, but I definitely don´t want to be carrying the weight I lost around for any amount of time.
 
(belated) Saturday progress report:
Time Period __ Avg Weight __ Avg BF% __ Avg Calories
2 weeks ago: ____ 294.1 _____ 43.7% ____ 1465
1 week ago: _____ 287.7 _____ 42.5% ____ 1439
(last) week: _____ 287.5 _____ 41.8% ____ 1412
(those are weekly averages)

My 2 week average weight loss was 1.8% - just shy of my 2% target. My 2 week average body fat loss was 1.9% - nearly double the ~1% I target. No changes planned for this week...

The hunting expedition was a bust, but it was still nice to get away deep in the woods. I also managed to get in over 10,000 steps each day. I routinely do 10K steps at home, but the steep elevation changes and unstable terrain left my legs a little sore.

Once back in town I bumped into a couple of clients that I hadn't seen in 6 months. One kept looking at me with a perplexed expression and finally said "there's something different about you... Oh, you shaved your beard!" (yes, yes I did - so my N95 mask would seal properly). The other, who previously was always all business in her interactions, seemed to be a little flirty. She complimented me on my appearance and repeatedly mentioned she had broken up with her on again off again boyfriend (I'm not 100% sure she was flirting, but I wouldn't be interested anyway. Still a nice ego boost).
 
Always lovely to get some forest time - and 10 k steps in steep terrain is a pretty good workout!
 
I wasn't surprised that Fitbit overestimated the calories I burned, but I was surprised by how far off it is. Since I got it May 15, fitbit has estimated that I've burned enough calories to lose 128 pounds, yet I've actually lost "just" 62. If I estimated my total calories burned based on my base metabolic rate (times an activity multiplier), I estimated I'd lose 50 pounds. If I add the calories I estimated burning from exercise (but subtracted the calories I would have burned sitting around not exercising) I estimated I'd lose 66 pounds - not too far off from my 62.

For just the month of September I've lost 10.2 lbs vs Fitbit's estimate of 28.4. My estimate that counted exercise was 11.4lbs vs 9.2 lbs without exercise counted:

Screenshot 2020-09-29 at 15.19.45.png

Unfortunately, I haven't found any way to apply a scalar correction factor to adjust fitbit estimates closer to reality. On days when I exercise very little, its estimate is off by ~800 calories. On days when I exercise a lot, its estimate is off by over 4000!


Speaking of the calculation for base metabolic rate, every few months I have to adjust that activity multiplier downward in order to reconcile my actual weight loss with the estimate. Initially the multiplier was 1.2, but now it is down to 1.08 (despite me being more active) which suggest my metabolism has slowed at least 10% beyond what the formula would have predicted based on the reduction of my lean body mass. No surprise, metabolic adaptation is well documented: The Metabolic Adaptation Manual: Problems, Solutions, & Life After Dieting But interesting to see it first hand nonetheless...



And finally some good news: For the last 2 days now I have dipped below the threshold of "morbid obesity" when based on body fat:

Category..............Lbs......BF%
Super Obese......>325.0....52.7%
Morbid Obese.....>260.0....40.0%
Severe Obese.....>227.0....34.6%
Obese..................>195.0....28.6%
Overweight..........>162.0....22.5%
Normal.................>120.0....14.8%

I'm still well over 260 pounds, but I think body fat is a better measure. Still, my BF estimates routinely move around 3% so I expect to bounce back and forth over the morbid obesity threshold for the next week or two.
 
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A lot of people don't understand how inaccurate trackers can be leading them to believe there is something wrong with them for not succeeding the way the tracker tells them they should.
 
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