Alligatorob's Diary
- Thread starter alligatorob
- Start date
Congrats on your first day at the refuge!
Oh, those swans are in hiding right now, lol.
Oh, those swans are in hiding right now, lol.
alligatorob
Respected Member
Today was a good day, I ate well, exercised and feel good tonight. I did a 60 minute workout, a bit less than yesterday, but it felt good.
Tomorrow is my first day back at the gym, I'll see how it goes, will probably limit my time there, do longer workouts at home.
Tomorrow is my first day back at the gym, I'll see how it goes, will probably limit my time there, do longer workouts at home.
I always feel ambivalent, kind of bitter sweet, about early snow, you are right it is beautiful and smells good, the down side is it's the begining of winter, my least favorite season.
Yes it is, and I really enjoy it in the different seasons. Doesn't quite make up for not being on the Gulf of Mexico, but its a close second.
Thanks Emily, it was good to finally do something there. I will do it again Saturday, but don't know after that, they are still pretty shut down for Covid.
Hey Marsia, good to see you! I like the mountains also, back in the spring and early summer I did some hikes into them, made me appreciate them even more.
I know what you mean--I used to live in a long-winter place...it can really drag out. I always liked the beginning though--it was more like January or February where I'd be "enough already!"
Soon your workouts will be just keeping the snow shoveled I guess--that's always a good one!
alligatorob
Respected Member
It was not a bad day, but I did go over my calorie goal a bit. I had 80 calories of pretzels knowing it would put me over. I know that's not a lot, but it is the first time I have knowing gone over in a year and a half. Not a binge, not even a lot of calories, but it doesn't feel good now... I did an hour and 40 minutes at the gym, my first day back. People were mostly wearing masks, that was new and comforting, but I have decided to limit my gym time to no more than 3 days a week, and no overtime unless the place is near empty, and it was today.
Thanks LaMa, I try to do different exercises most days, in rotation anyway. I probably don't track the specific muscle groups as well as I should, but I think I do ok.
Thanks Petal, and I am trying to stay safe, we have new restrictions here in Utah that should help. Though I know they are not as rigorous as yours.
I hate shoveling snow, but you are right it can be good exercise! Actually my driveway is too long to shovel, a total of over 500 feet, I use my tractor to plow. Still need to do some shoveling though.
Actually I have been doing just that, I plan to do as many or more days of workout here at home, its safer.
sounds like a good plan...it's not very nice to have covid on the brain while working out I imagine! That is good to hear that people are wearing masks at least.
Err2
New member
Some back of the envelope risk assessment:
I looked up covid prevalence in your county and, if you assume there are 5 infections in your county for every positive test, you currently have a 36% chance of encountering at least 1 person with covid19 when there are 10 random people inside your gym. If you assume there are 10 infections for every positive test, those odds of encountering someone with covid jump to 60%.
On the plus side, only a fraction of contacts convert into infections: about 20% of people on the Diamond Princess cruise ship got infected after 2+ weeks and on the Theordore Roosevelt only 13% of crew became infected during the initial 2+ weeks at sea. About 27% of TR crew ultimately became infected after 2 months at sea or in hotels on Guam. I'd assume everyone on both ships had at least 1 contact - most had multiple prolonged contacts with the virus.
alligatorob
Respected Member
Typed this up yesterday, but somehow missed posting it, oh well better late than never.
It was a good day, I ate well, exercised and feel good tonight. Did an hour and a half in the gym today, I was pretty tired
It was a good day, I ate well, exercised and feel good tonight. Did an hour and a half in the gym today, I was pretty tired
alligatorob
Respected Member
Today was a good day too, I ate well, exercised and feel good tonight. I did an hour and 37 min at the gym, and was not so tired as yesterday. No gym now for a few days, will have to find other ways to exercise. I have decided to up my calories a little, no shooting for something in the 1,550 calorie range and see what happens.
I hope it is, its my plan for now. The gym felt ok this morning, though there was one person who did not wear a mask, but I never got within 15 feet of her. Not so many people at the gym now. I have also noticed more businesses with masks, I am having some work done on my tractor and when in this morning, first time I have seen anyone at the tractor place in a mask. Hope that is a trend.
Thanks Err, that is a little scary... Actually if you used the map you posted a link to it may have overestimated our infection rate. We share a health department and get lumped together statistically with the adjacent county where rates are higher. My county has a smaller population and lower rates than the adjoining one. Your map showed both counties as one with a single statistic. However even if the risk is half what you calculated its not good news. I think we in the US are past the point of not being occasionally exposed, I suspect at least every few days I am in the presence of a covid positive person. However as you say that does not always mean infection, I just hope my mask wearing, hand washing and distancing are enough protection. I honestly think I am exposed to more people at the store than the gym.
Hey Cate, thanks for asking, it was good, looks like I missed hitting the "Post reply" button last night.
Err2
New member
Congrats on your weight these last couple of days!
<nerdy digression>
I'm assuming your gym is in BE county which apparently has had 1513 total cases this year, 834 of whom have recovered. So 679 current positive tests out of a population of 56,000 means a 1.2% chance a random BE resident has tested positive in the last ~2 weeks. If there are 5 actual positive cases for every positive test, the odds of a random stranger having covid are 6%. (As an assumption check, ~10 million Americans have tested positive for covid19 since it began, but a sample of 28,000 Americans found ~9% had antibodies implying there have been about 3 cases nationwide for every positive test).
Anyway, if the odds of one stranger having covid19 are 6% and you encounter 10 random people in a row, the odds of all of them being covid negative are 94% x 94% x 94% x 94% x 94% x 94% x 94% x 94% x 94% x 94% ~= 54% (i.e. a 46% chance of encountering at least 1 person with covid). So the numbers I'm getting from BRHD are indeed better than the numbers from Georgia Tech's map, but they still seem pretty grim.
Of course those calculations assume people are random when they are not; about half of covid infections have symptoms so you would hope that half would be self-isolating, cutting the risk to you in half. And the infections are not evenly distributed throughout society (it looks like BE high school is responsible for much of your current outbreak).
But iirc you were an engineer and are presumably more comfortable using a generous factor of safety...
</nerdy digression>
Yeah it does seems a little scary to me too...
<nerdy digression>
I'm assuming your gym is in BE county which apparently has had 1513 total cases this year, 834 of whom have recovered. So 679 current positive tests out of a population of 56,000 means a 1.2% chance a random BE resident has tested positive in the last ~2 weeks. If there are 5 actual positive cases for every positive test, the odds of a random stranger having covid are 6%. (As an assumption check, ~10 million Americans have tested positive for covid19 since it began, but a sample of 28,000 Americans found ~9% had antibodies implying there have been about 3 cases nationwide for every positive test).
Anyway, if the odds of one stranger having covid19 are 6% and you encounter 10 random people in a row, the odds of all of them being covid negative are 94% x 94% x 94% x 94% x 94% x 94% x 94% x 94% x 94% x 94% ~= 54% (i.e. a 46% chance of encountering at least 1 person with covid). So the numbers I'm getting from BRHD are indeed better than the numbers from Georgia Tech's map, but they still seem pretty grim.
Of course those calculations assume people are random when they are not; about half of covid infections have symptoms so you would hope that half would be self-isolating, cutting the risk to you in half. And the infections are not evenly distributed throughout society (it looks like BE high school is responsible for much of your current outbreak).
But iirc you were an engineer and are presumably more comfortable using a generous factor of safety...
</nerdy digression>
misty22
Well-known member
Dropping a hello, after a hiatus! Omg is that a new profile pic, you have lost considerable weight! How are you?
People are mandated to wear masks in indoor spaces here, and lots wear them on the street in Toronto. The economy has definitely been affected. I don't like wearing one, takes some getting used to for sure. Our gyms are closed.
People are mandated to wear masks in indoor spaces here, and lots wear them on the street in Toronto. The economy has definitely been affected. I don't like wearing one, takes some getting used to for sure. Our gyms are closed.