Challenge?
No need. That's what I do as a hobby.
That said, no, research definitely does not support the idea that obesity is caused by carbohydrate consumption. Obesity is caused by an excess of calories which is caused by many, many factors including lifestyle factors, dietary factors, societal pressures, etc, etc.
Sure, there is research suggesting there are advantages of low carb dieting. There's plenty of research supporting the flip side too. And there are a few key points that you appear to be overlooking. And I assure you I've seen all available research on the subject at hand - human and animals.
1. High protein is the main driver at play. It's not the magic of low carbs. A key distinction here that has to be made is that the research on the whole does not match protein intakes between diets. So, the adequate protein intakes have multiple advantages (ie, LBM support, satiety, thermic effect) compared to the inadequate protein intakes. Thus, it's not lower carb intake per se that imparts the advantage, it's the higher protein intake.
The majority of the research compares dietary extremes (high-carb/low-fat/low-protein versus low-carb/high-fat/moderate protein), and the majority of long-term trials (12 mo or more) STILL fail to show a significant weight loss difference.
2. The overwhelming majority of metabolic ward studies show no metabolic advantage of low-carb treatments. If a metabolic ward has not been used, the study is suspect at best given the variable, uncontrolled factors surrounding something as complex is nutritional intake.
3. These two reviews discuss the entire body of metabolic ward research, which clearly does not support your claims.
Schoeller DA, Buchholz AC. Energetics of obesity and weight control: does diet composition matter? J Am Diet Assoc. 2005 May;105(5 Suppl 1):S24-8.
Schoeller DA, Buchholz AC. Is a calorie a calorie? Am J Clin Nutr. 2004 May;79(5):899S-906S.
4. Note that these trials used the sedentary obese, so in the fit population (which has better glucose tolerance than the sedentary obese), any weight loss differences would be even more miniscule. Furthermore, keep in mind that the lack of significant difference in weight loss was seen despite unequal protein intakes across treatments.
Brinkworth GD, et al. Long-term effects of a very-low-carbohydrate weight loss diet compared with an isocaloric low-fat diet after 12 mo. Am J Clin Nutr. 2009 Jul;90(1):23-32.
Dansiger ML, et al. Comparison of the Atkins, Ornish, Weight Watchers, and Zone diets for weight loss and heart disease risk reduction: a randomized trial. JAMA. 2005 Jan 5;293(1):43-53.
Stern L, et al. The effects of low-carbohydrate versus conventional weight loss diets in severely obese adults: one-year follow-up of a randomized trial. Ann Intern Med. 2004 May 18;140(10):778-85.
Foster GD, et al. A randomized trial of a low-carbohydrate diet for obesity. N Engl J Med. 2003 May 22;348(21):2082-90.
5. Individual carbohydrate demands vary widely. For some folks, low-carb is warranted. For others, it isn't. It always amazes me how hard that concept is to grasp for low-carb absolutists, which I'm not labeling you as. Perhaps your biggest folly is the belief that carbs are bad, and thus low-carb dieting is the answer for everyone. Both research and practice do not support this.
6. And we can sling all of the research that exists regarding metabolic advantages associated with low carb dieting. It's all out there for anyone with the time to read. But what's the point? If you've reviewed all of the available data as you suggest, you'll agree that:
a) The proposed MA for low carb diets is a hypothesis, not a fact
b) There is inadequate data to support the MA hypothesis
c) There is inadequate data to reject the MA hypothesis
d) The MA hypothesis does not trump the concept of energy balance. It postulates inefficiencies in energy metabolism, which would translate to an increase in measured energy expenditure (due to heat loss) in a living organism. Thus, if the MA was true, "calories out" would increase for a given "calories in".
e) A definitive study examining 24-hour energy expenditure (using room calorimetry), comparing a ketogenic diet to a traditional diet (with matched protein intake) for subjects in an energy deficit, has not been performed. This is the only study that will adequately test the MA hypothesis in humans
f) Weight loss still requires an energy deficit. If a MA exists, it still cannot make up for an energy surplus or energy balance. To assert otherwise is to assert that energy can be created or destroyed out of thin air, or that human tissue can be created in the absence of any energy input. Not that you're suggesting this... from what I can tell... you do know calories trump nutrient balance when it comes to losing mass... even though both are critically important.
7. According to the USDA Economic Research Service, from 1970-2007, percentage of daily calories from added sugars decreased 1% during this period, whereas flours/cereals increased by 3%. Dairy is down 3%, with no change in percentage of fruit consumption. Meat, eggs, & nuts (collectively) are down by 4%. Vegetables are down by 1%. Added fats increased by 7%. And the clincher: total daily calorie consumption increased by 27.7%. Given this, if you want to analyze things from a different angle rather than research papers... it appears that the rise in obesity is due in large part to a net increase in calorie intake.
What it comes down to is this. Like I said above. I'm not a fan of saying, "Carbs are bad unless it's fruits or veggies." Research does not support this as a whole and it's simply an unnecessary "rule" for people to follow. For some a low carb approach may be optimal. For others, it won't be.
If calories are in check, essentials (by that I mean adequate amounts of the essential nutrients) are in check, and the rest is tailored to your individual set of circumstances... that's what matters. Not blanket rules that are supposed to apply to everyone.