Dave's Diary

Dave Welch

Dave Welch

New member

Day-149

Today’s weigh-in 80.152Kg (176.33Lb) gain 0.034Kg

My weight loss program is at day-149 and I already keep a daily diary on my own website, but according to the rules, I am not permitted to post a link to that site. I don’t want to reproduce the whole diary entry here, as the entries tend to be lengthy and a lot of the information will be irrelevant without reading back through the previous entries for insight. So I will stick to status reports and predictions.

I started my program weighing in at 100Kg (220Lb). My target weight is 70Kg (154Lb) but I am toying with the idea of going down to 64Kg which was my college weight. If I did, 64 would still give me a BMI of 20 which is not such a bad number, still residing in the normal weight zone.

My friends think that I should quit now, but with a BMI of 25, a waist of 39” and still a ton of fat to pinch, I know that there is a lot more work to do.

I am a retired engineer with a left brained, compulsive, obsessive personality, and so making lists, collecting data, constructing spreadsheets and graphs was inevitable. In doing so, I have identified 4 cycles that repeat in what I call a period. My bet is that this is the male equivalent of the female menstrual cycle.



The cycle graphs show my food intake (green) and a simulation of the metabolic rate. Obviously only a simulation as the metabolic rate could not possibly drop below zero. I really need to call this trace something else, but I am too far in now. The trace is actually my weight change in calories added to my calorie intake.

‘Why make predictions’ I hear you exclaim – well, being obsessive, a week between weigh-ins is just not acceptable. We all know that daily weigh-ins are unpredictable and wild, so I have made it my mission to tame the daily weigh-in numbers and reduce the stress and depressing effect that a few bad days can have, by showing the inevitability of the gains and show that positive losses are to follow. Instead of hoping for a good result, I can see the bad result at least 24 hours before and accept it before stepping on the scale.

My current cycle is G2 (period G, cycle 2) which is roughly following the pattern of B2. This allows me to make a prediction of a large loss in weight for tomorrow of around 0.4Kg, followed by a similar large gain in weight the following day. I am hoping that the gain will be less than shown on cycle-B2.

Dave

 

Day 150 - weigh-in 80.127Kg (176.28Lb) loss 0.025Kg
Tomorrow’s prediction – loss 0.3Kg +/-0.1
Score – 0 : 1



Yesterday’s prediction was a disaster. I don’t always get it right as sometimes the graphs are difficult to interpret, there is still a lot for me to learn. It looks like I was following the wrong graph pattern. Either the next few days are going to make me smile or I need to go back to the drawing board. Still, from a weight loss program point of view, a zero gain/loss is always a reasonable result.

Dave

 
Hi Dave and welcome to the diaries :) I'm not sure the male body works in regular cycles but I look forward to you proving me otherwise. Good luck on your journey!
 
Thanks @jen_renee and @LaMaria for the welcome.

I too was surprised when cycles appeared in my data, but a little research confirmed the fact. The cycles are far more erratic than you ladies contend with (period lengths 21, 25, 27, 22, 20 so far).

As for the prediction thing, that is just for a bit of added interest and fun. I am not claiming anything as yet. The patterns are loosely there, but difficult to interpret sometimes.

Dave
 
:D Don't believe our cycles are nice and regular; without the pill I believe anything from about 20 to 40 days is considered normal. Human kind is hardwired to find patterns everywhere, and I guess anything which makes sticking to healthy living more interesting is fair game. I'll admit I look forward to checking the stats&graphs produced by my fitbit every day :)
 
I know from past experiences that weight loss programs occupy my mind every waking hour. Seeing as I am retired, I decided to do something with it rather than just waiting for the next weigh-in. I spend hours every day on my spreadsheet, logging, writing macros, thinking new ways to present the data and so on. I have just started logging urine color, but still working out the details :)

Dave
 
If you have the time and energy: go for it. Just keep in mind that every good weight loss method includes a plan for long-term maintenance.
 
Yes indeed @LaMaria, that is part of the reason why I am going to all this trouble; to learn more about weight loss programs and the effect on the body systems. In fact, the main purpose of this study really begins once the weight loss program is completed. I will be collecting data for at least another year after the conclusion.

Dave
 
Good luck on your program Dave. I too find it more fun to chart things, make lists, create goal and reward lists...but mine is more "strategic battle plan oriented" rather than your "engineer problem solving" method. My middle son is currently at the United States Naval Academy studying astro nautical engineering. Your chart and predictions reminded me of what he would do.
I look forward to reading how it goes.
 
@brawny77 - Ha! I actually am an aeronautical engineer. Even though retired, the thinking never goes away.

I would certainly like to read about your 'strategic battle plan' ideas, I am intrigued.

Thanks for the encouragement.
 


Day 151 - weigh-in 80.118Kg (176.26Lb) loss 0.009Kg

Tomorrow’s prediction – loss 0.3Kg +/-0.1

Score – 0 : 2

Today’s weigh-in was yet another break-even result, making 4 days of zero loss/gain. With no precedent for this in my data it is impossible to predict an outcome for tomorrow. However, the current cycle-G2 is now 7 days in. No cycle-2 has extended beyond day-7 and so once again I predict a gain of 0.3Kg for tomorrow.

Dave

 
I may have missed it, or you may have posted it on your old diary, but how what/much do you eat and exercise? Both can influence water weight heavily.
 
@LaMaria - you are correct. From my data there is a strong correlation between the water intake and urine output, this is an indication of water retention and mirrors the scale measurements precisely.

Currently I don't exercise, but that starts as soon as my E-bicycle is delivered in approximately a week from now.

My calorie intake is 1200kcal per day. Yes, I know that this is low, but I am 60 and do not have the years to play with by bringing my weight down gradually.

Get rid of the weight - get fit - continue monitoring. This is my plan. To exercise before I reached normal weight at around 80Kg would have been too much of a risk in my mind, bearing in mind that I have not exercised in twenty years. The bike has been on order for 6 weeks now, but waiting for the parts to arrive from China.

Dave
 
Depends on your physical condition and fitness goals. Walking/swimming at a reasonable pace would be doable for most people at any weight. Same for moderate weight lifting. High deficits make it more likely that you´ll lose muscle mass as well as/instead of fat, which would make exercising more important.
 
Yes, not that I had much to begin with. 20 years in front of a computer takes its toll. I intend to fix my body once the bicycle arrives, slowly at first and gradually improve cardio. After a few months I will start more intensive work at the gym.

Once I start burning more calories, I will adjust my intake to the appropriate number. I have given this a lot of thought, there is nothing rash about my intake decision.

It still seems like a lot of food. I have just prepared tomorrow's menu: 238g of banana for breakfast, 256g baked sweet potato with fried bilis (olive oil) , roast peanuts and shallots in a spicy sauce. Evening meal 285g tuna steak, boiled in a spicy sauce and kecap manis (soy). This gives a total of 1210kcal for the day. I am certainly not going hungry!

Dave
 

Day 152 - weigh-in 79.711Kg (175.36Lb) loss 0.407Kg
Tomorrow’s prediction – loss 0.3Kg +/-0.1
Score – 1:2

I am claiming a point from yesterday’s prediction, even though technically I was outside the +/-0.1 tolerance, but by less than the weight of a peanut. Tomorrow I am expecting another 0.4Kg loss, but I am predicting 0.3Kg to make the most of the tolerance.

Not only have I passed one of my mini targets of 80Kg but I also get to add another kilogram and so I have added another bag to my sugar pyramid avatar. It is a very good day indeed.

Dave

 
Congratulations on breaking into the seventies! Is that the meaning of your avatar? That´s so aweseome :D
 
@LaMaria - Yes, every time I drop a kilo I add a bag of sugar. I imagine what it would be like to carry all those kilo bags in a back-pack all day long. It is a part of my regime of self support.

Dave
 

Day 153 - weigh-in 79.681Kg (175.3Lb) loss 0.030Kg
Tomorrow’s prediction – none
Score 1:3

This morning was a most disappointing weigh-in, with a loss of a measly 0.030Kg. I am finding the predicting of the next day’s result to be impossible as the cycles seem to be changing. Still, the overall results and trend are positive, with a gradual reduction in weight.

Having started losing weight again and dropping an inch off my waist, I decided to try a new notch on the belt. It slipped in quite easily but is a bit too tight to claim just yet, another kilogram should do it. This will be a very big milestone, as it means I will have gone from a very tight first hole to the last hole on my belt. That probably calls for a photo-shoot when it happens. I will have to start looking for a leather hole punch, that is money that I am really going to enjoy spending, along with a new pair of shorts, but I may hold off for another month before that purchase.

Dave

 
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