My average weight crossed my goal again last Saturday. Now I’ve been within +/-0.6 lb (+/-0.3 kg) of my goal every day since 11?Jan?2012; 154 days and still counting. Three months ago I started using this simple morning-warning average for weight maintenance. Do you think it’s a good idea to continue using it for long term weight control? I’d like to avoid repeating past rebounds of 40 & 20 lbs. The average does not jump up right away when a single-day’s weight does; but it predicts changes for the next few days enabling me to adjust my portions, etc., before it drifts too much.
Date Daily Average Average
Scale Body Loss
Weight Weight Rate
DailySW AvgBW AvgLR
dd-mmm-yyyy lb lb lb/wk
1-Jan-2012 163.2 163.20 <--Use DailySW instead of {Eqn1}
2-Jan-2012 163.2 163.20 0.0 <-- in the first two days of AvgBW.
3-Jan-2012 163.2 163.20 0.0
4-Jan-2012 163.2 163.20 0.0
5-Jan-2012 163.2 163.20 0.0
6-Jan-2012 162.2 163.16 -0.3 <--Notice the slow immediate response of
7-Jan-2012 163.2 163.14 -0.2 AvgBW to a -1 lb change of DailySW.
8-Jan-2012 163.2 163.13 -0.1
9-Jan-2012 162.0 163.08 -0.4 <--Today
10-Jan-2012 162.0 163.00 -0.5 <--Maintaining: Copy today’s DailySW to future DailySW’s.
11-Jan-2012 162.0 162.92 -0.6 Dieting: Reduce future DailySW by 2/7 lb/day
12-Jan-2012 162.0 162.83 -0.6 (0.9/7 kg/day)
13-Jan-2012 162.0 162.74 -0.6 (0.14/7 stone/day).
14-Jan-2012 162.0 162.65 -0.6 <--5 days ahead
15-Jan-2012 162.0 162.57 -0.6
16-Jan-2012 162.0 162.50 -0.5
17-Jan-2012 162.0 162.43 -0.5
18-Jan-2012 162.0 162.37 -0.4 <--9 days ahead [My goal is 162.4 lb (74.6 kg).]
19-Jan-2012 162.0 162.32 -0.4
20-Jan-2012 162.0 162.27 -0.3
NOTE 1: I weigh first thing in the morning before eating or drinking anything; wear the same clothes; use a digital scale; weigh twice and only use a value if both are the same; write the weight value down; and enter it into my spreadsheet later.
NOTE 2: Just change lb to kg, stone, etc. everywhere and everything should work as is.
NOTE 3: My target loss rate of -2 lb/wk (-0.9 kg/wk) is not doctor’s advice for anyone else.
EQUATIONS:
AvgBW0 = 0.0379682*DailySW0 + 1.610293*AvgBW1 - 0.648261*AvgBW2 [Eqn1]
AvgLR0 = (AvgBW0-AvgBW1)*7 [Eqn2]
Suffix: 0 is today; 1 is yesterday; 2 is day before yesterday.
MAINTAINING:
Adjust portions, etc., by observing the 100ths of a pound of AvgBW; it has a delay of about 9 days.
DIETING:
Adjust portions, etc., to get about -2 lb/wk (-0.9 kg/wk) for AvgLR; it stabilizes in about 5 days.
I TOOK THREE LONG STEPS TO GET A BETTER AVERAGE
3-2-1 AVERAGE
(used 40 years)
Three times the average of the latest week, plus 2 times the average of the previous week, plus 1 times the average of the week before that, divided by 6.
Benefit – Smoothing; average keeps going down during a diet. (A once-a-week single-day weight will plateau from time to time due to random factors.)
Problem – Too much delay, especially during maintenance, allowing weight to drift.
1-POLE AVERAGE
(used 3 months)
Has equivalent smoothing to the 3-2-1 average.
Benefit – Has less delay. (Has a once-a-day update instead of a once-a-week one.)
Problem – Responds too quickly to a single-day or two’s jump in weight.
2-POLE (MORNING-WARNING) AVERAGE
(used 3 months)
Has equivalent smoothing to the 3-2-1 average.
Benefit - Responds more slowly (more realistically) to a single-day or two’s jump in weight, enabling me to adjust my portions, etc., before it drifts too much.
Walt162 12-June-2012.1215Tue
