1600 calories at her height and weight would NOT result in weight loss. *I* eat at 1700 calories a day and I have 5" and nearly 50 lbs on her.
Don't make it so complex.
It's really not all that complex, albeit if one does the math themselves it would require a bit more time, but not much. Of course there are multiple on-line calculators that are available.
The Harris-Benedict equation to calculate BMR and the Mifflin equation to calculate RMR (Resting Metabolic Rate) are commonly used by both the medical and nutritional science communities.
Estimate 14 calories per 1 lb of bodyweight for a moderately active adult woman.
Her weight now: 121 lbs.
Maintenance calories (121 * 14): 1694.
That means her MAINTENANCE calories with moderate exercise are 1600-1700. If she eats that much a day, she's not gonna lose weight.
1694 * 80% (a 20% deficit) = 1355 calories
1694 * 70% (a 30% deficit) = 1185 calories
1200 calories is a perfectly reasonable and safe amount of calories for her to eat to lose.
I guess it all depends on the method used.
The equation links I provided above yield a basic need of 1341 calories should she desire to stay in bed and do nothing else, and a maintenance number of 1609 calories should get up but remain otherwise sedentary (no exercise but common, everyday activity) and desire to stay at her current weight.
If she exercised "moderately" (3-5X per week) it yields 2078 to maintain her current weight.
Using those and the commonly used example she could reduce her calories by 3500/7 = 500 per day from her active maintenance requirement and lose 1 lb/week.
2078 - 500 = 1578 calories.
Exercise alone will NOT cause her (or anyone) to lose weight.
I never said it would. HOWEVER...Yes, nutrition is key (and admittedly a very important one at that), but weight loss is caused by creating a calorie deficit. If a sedentary person is eating "maintenance" calories (let's assume 1350 cals) and then adds exercise on top of that, are they not creating a calorie deficit?
In such a case, weight loss is caused by the calories burned through exercise.
Likewise, that person could replace those calories burned with additional balanced calories and still maintain their present weight. This is because their "new" maintenance calories is equal to those necessary for basic body function + calories expended through exercise.
Look, there are many methodologies for calculating caloric need and many other methods to break those calories down by macronutrient. Many will give numbers within
+100 calories of each other. Others will be very skewed either high or low.
But the ability to continue cutting calories and continue normal, healthy body function is not infinite. Your body will only accept minimums for so long before it begins to act in "defiance" of what may otherwise be normal. This is why such things as menstrual cycle disruption, hair loss, etc. occur in severely restricted diets. As do things like injury, inability to exercise and "bonking."
Almost all methodologies will set some type of floor (I would be very wary of any that didn't) and usually that is in the range of 1000-1200 calories. And that number usually assumes NO exercise.
I do understand that her "gain" occurred during a few months of poor nutrition by her own admission but I will offer again, that should she continue to gain weight while maintaining 1200 calories or cease to lose, she may want to consider increasing calories incrementally to the 1600 range while maintaining her exercise routines.
Like I stated before, I experienced this myself. I was on an 1800-calorie intake and lost weight initially and then "plateaued." Both a clinical nutritionist and personal trainer recommended I increase my intake to around 2100 calories. Within no time, my weight loss resumed, nice and steady.
Of course, all these equations or rules-of-thumb are based on averages, some with science behind them and others without, and it really all depends on the individual.
Ellski, maybe you can get ahold of a BodyBugg or a GoWear Fit and get a "personalized" measurement (using their algorithm of course). If you were to go to a nutritionist, they would most likely utilize the Harris Benedict/Mifflin equations I provided above to determine caloric need.
And I too apologize for talking "about" you but this is an academic debate, and a good one at that, so consider yourself famous!
